Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Fujian Snowman Co., Ltd. (002639.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.54 - $5.72$2.59
Multi-Stage$1.00 - $1.09$1.05
Blended Fair Value$1.82
Current Price$10.48
Upside-82.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.02%3.20%0.040.060.050.060.070.080.060.060.040.04
YoY Growth---22.60%8.43%-17.22%-6.98%-13.68%33.38%-0.99%34.11%7.92%28.51%
Dividend Yield--0.51%0.79%0.58%0.55%1.11%1.05%0.49%0.77%0.38%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.325.203.12
Cash Retained (M)21.2121.2121.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.32-5.20-3.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.9016.0218.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)774.54774.54774.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.54$2.59$5.72
Upside / Downside-85.26%-75.31%-45.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.5844.2847.1650.2353.4956.9758.68
Payout Ratio48.98%57.18%65.39%73.59%81.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.3725.3230.8436.9643.7551.2754.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)23.1323.3523.57
Year 2 PV (M)25.7426.2326.72
Year 3 PV (M)28.1828.9929.82
Year 4 PV (M)30.4831.6532.86
Year 5 PV (M)32.6334.2035.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)635.71666.42698.30
Equity Value (M)775.87810.84847.10
Shares Outstanding (M)774.54774.54774.54
Fair Value$1.00$1.05$1.09
Upside / Downside-90.44%-90.01%-89.56%

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