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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen Kingdomway Group Company (002626.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.55 - $11.77$9.50
Multi-Stage$16.60 - $18.26$17.41
Blended Fair Value$13.46
Current Price$20.14
Upside-33.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.56%5.62%0.240.260.660.670.650.920.450.230.080.17
YoY Growth---8.43%-60.48%-1.28%3.35%-29.30%104.02%95.00%189.66%-52.21%20.14%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.71%2.72%2.23%1.64%4.15%3.27%1.25%0.57%0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)482.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)261.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)220.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.4260.2636.16
Cash Retained (M)220.51220.51220.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.42-60.26-36.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)124.10160.25184.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)609.63609.63609.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.260.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.260.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-1.70%-0.70%0.30%
Fair Value$7.55$9.50$11.77
Upside / Downside-62.49%-52.83%-41.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)482.09478.71475.37472.04468.74465.46479.43
Payout Ratio54.26%61.41%68.56%75.70%82.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)261.57293.96325.89357.35388.36418.92443.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-1.70%-0.70%0.30%
Year 1 PV (M)273.16275.94278.72
Year 2 PV (M)281.39287.15292.96
Year 3 PV (M)286.72295.56304.58
Year 4 PV (M)289.55301.51313.84
Year 5 PV (M)290.22305.29320.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,696.599,148.039,618.03
Equity Value (M)10,117.6310,613.4711,129.09
Shares Outstanding (M)609.63609.63609.63
Fair Value$16.60$17.41$18.26
Upside / Downside-17.60%-13.56%-9.36%

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