Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Himile Mechanical Science and Technology (Shandong) Co., Ltd (002595.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.37 - $120.12$80.16
Multi-Stage$40.79 - $44.57$42.65
Blended Fair Value$61.40
Current Price$59.25
Upside3.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.18%20.90%1.000.380.370.380.390.420.400.380.250.25
YoY Growth--167.28%0.22%-0.40%-2.56%-7.52%4.06%5.00%52.00%-0.48%67.85%
Dividend Yield--1.70%1.05%1.20%1.95%1.31%2.47%1.88%2.32%1.01%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,382.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)300.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,082.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)476.56297.85178.71
Cash Retained (M)2,082.572,082.572,082.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-476.56-297.85-178.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,606.011,784.721,903.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)797.65797.65797.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.012.242.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.012.242.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.392.612.76
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.37$80.16$120.12
Upside / Downside-4.87%35.28%102.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,382.822,537.712,702.662,878.333,065.423,264.683,362.62
Payout Ratio12.60%28.08%43.56%59.04%74.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)300.25712.601,177.291,699.372,284.362,938.213,110.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)641.89647.98654.06
Year 2 PV (M)955.25973.44991.81
Year 3 PV (M)1,242.051,277.711,314.04
Year 4 PV (M)1,503.941,561.781,621.27
Year 5 PV (M)1,742.471,826.641,914.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,453.4327,731.1429,057.75
Equity Value (M)32,539.0434,018.6835,552.95
Shares Outstanding (M)797.65797.65797.65
Fair Value$40.79$42.65$44.57
Upside / Downside-31.15%-28.02%-24.77%

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