Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen Sunrise Group Co., Ltd. (002593.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.34 - $2.15$1.70
Multi-Stage$2.81 - $3.09$2.95
Blended Fair Value$2.32
Current Price$5.12
Upside-54.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.92%0.53%0.100.050.100.100.100.100.100.100.030.09
YoY Growth--95.20%-49.18%3.95%-3.83%-3.72%1.92%2.29%229.95%-67.17%-2.25%
Dividend Yield--2.01%1.43%2.70%2.72%2.83%2.95%2.47%2.53%0.45%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)99.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.8212.397.43
Cash Retained (M)18.5618.5618.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.82-12.39-7.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.266.1711.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)781.10781.10781.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.99%0.01%1.01%
Fair Value$1.34$1.70$2.15
Upside / Downside-73.91%-66.75%-58.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)99.1199.1299.1499.1599.1799.18102.15
Payout Ratio81.27%83.02%84.76%86.51%88.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.5582.2984.0385.7887.5289.2694.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.99%0.01%1.01%
Year 1 PV (M)76.4777.2478.01
Year 2 PV (M)72.5674.0475.52
Year 3 PV (M)68.8370.9373.08
Year 4 PV (M)65.2667.9370.69
Year 5 PV (M)61.8565.0468.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,850.921,946.292,045.56
Equity Value (M)2,195.892,301.482,411.23
Shares Outstanding (M)781.10781.10781.10
Fair Value$2.81$2.95$3.09
Upside / Downside-45.09%-42.45%-39.71%

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