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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Sierte Fertilizer industry Ltd. ,company (002538.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.32 - $51.66$48.41
Multi-Stage$8.38 - $9.17$8.77
Blended Fair Value$28.59
Current Price$5.27
Upside442.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.57%10.22%0.240.270.380.200.070.090.180.120.130.10
YoY Growth---10.03%-29.41%92.28%180.89%-25.71%-48.41%46.94%-4.56%33.16%7.75%
Dividend Yield--3.99%5.28%4.78%2.26%1.25%1.89%2.95%1.54%1.26%0.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)222.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)94.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.4427.7816.67
Cash Retained (M)94.3294.3294.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.44-27.78-16.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.8866.5577.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)853.57853.57853.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.26%6.26%7.26%
Fair Value$23.32$48.41$51.66
Upside / Downside342.42%818.60%880.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)222.20236.12250.91266.63283.34301.09310.12
Payout Ratio57.55%64.04%70.53%77.02%83.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.88151.22176.97205.36236.62270.98286.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.26%6.26%7.26%
Year 1 PV (M)141.04142.38143.72
Year 2 PV (M)153.96156.90159.87
Year 3 PV (M)166.64171.43176.32
Year 4 PV (M)179.08185.98193.08
Year 5 PV (M)191.29200.55210.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,318.526,624.406,942.02
Equity Value (M)7,150.527,481.647,825.16
Shares Outstanding (M)853.57853.57853.57
Fair Value$8.38$8.77$9.17
Upside / Downside58.96%66.32%73.96%

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