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Definitive Analysis

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Gold cup Electric Apparatus Co.,Ltd. (002533.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.14 - $166.74$156.26
Multi-Stage$23.69 - $25.91$24.78
Blended Fair Value$90.52
Current Price$11.75
Upside670.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.90%27.14%0.640.410.390.330.300.110.100.120.080.08
YoY Growth--56.03%4.87%18.37%11.15%158.01%14.88%-13.91%48.39%2.02%32.75%
Dividend Yield--6.10%3.80%5.27%4.68%5.22%2.09%1.61%2.00%0.82%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)605.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)306.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)299.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.1975.7445.45
Cash Retained (M)299.41299.41299.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.19-75.74-45.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)178.22223.66253.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)722.72722.72722.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.310.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.310.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$61.14$156.26$166.74
Upside / Downside420.37%1,229.88%1,319.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)605.95645.33687.28731.95779.53830.20855.11
Payout Ratio50.59%58.47%66.35%74.24%82.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)306.54377.33456.03543.37640.13747.18790.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)350.46353.78357.10
Year 2 PV (M)393.39400.88408.44
Year 3 PV (M)435.34447.84460.57
Year 4 PV (M)476.34494.66513.50
Year 5 PV (M)516.40541.34567.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,947.1615,669.1116,418.70
Equity Value (M)17,119.0917,907.6218,725.56
Shares Outstanding (M)722.72722.72722.72
Fair Value$23.69$24.78$25.91
Upside / Downside101.59%110.88%120.51%

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