Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shandong Polymer Biochemicals Co., Ltd. (002476.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.64 - $0.88$0.76
Multi-Stage$1.04 - $1.15$1.10
Blended Fair Value$0.93
Current Price$5.77
Upside-83.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.02%-9.94%0.010.000.000.010.020.010.020.030.040.03
YoY Growth--1,036.73%49.64%-92.71%-45.31%127.20%-59.12%-43.53%-20.82%35.94%-8.25%
Dividend Yield--0.27%0.02%0.01%0.18%0.43%0.11%0.30%0.55%0.45%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)63.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.188.865.32
Cash Retained (M)63.6163.6163.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.18-8.86-5.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.4454.7558.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)611.45611.45611.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate-4.12%-3.12%-2.12%
Fair Value$0.64$0.76$0.88
Upside / Downside-88.89%-86.77%-84.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.8968.6866.5464.4662.4460.4962.31
Payout Ratio10.27%26.21%42.16%58.11%74.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.2818.0028.0537.4546.2454.4457.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate-4.12%-3.12%-2.12%
Year 1 PV (M)16.2416.4016.57
Year 2 PV (M)22.8123.2923.77
Year 3 PV (M)27.4628.3329.22
Year 4 PV (M)30.5731.8733.21
Year 5 PV (M)32.4634.1935.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)508.81535.90564.13
Equity Value (M)638.34669.98702.89
Shares Outstanding (M)611.45611.45611.45
Fair Value$1.04$1.10$1.15
Upside / Downside-81.91%-81.01%-80.08%

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