Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co., Ltd. (002457.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.96 - $122.65$91.47
Multi-Stage$16.53 - $18.10$17.30
Blended Fair Value$54.38
Current Price$11.11
Upside389.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.31%9.85%0.210.260.240.240.170.150.140.060.050.05
YoY Growth---22.25%10.93%0.29%36.64%14.90%8.21%129.38%26.86%5.01%-43.02%
Dividend Yield--1.72%3.27%2.72%2.27%2.17%1.87%1.26%0.51%0.44%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)205.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)147.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.1225.7015.42
Cash Retained (M)147.60147.60147.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.12-25.70-15.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)106.48121.90132.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)332.19332.19332.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.11%6.11%7.11%
Fair Value$31.96$91.47$122.65
Upside / Downside187.71%723.32%1,003.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)205.61218.17231.50245.65260.66276.58284.88
Payout Ratio28.21%40.57%52.93%65.29%77.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.0188.52122.53160.37202.38248.92263.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.11%6.11%7.11%
Year 1 PV (M)82.1582.9383.71
Year 2 PV (M)105.53107.55109.59
Year 3 PV (M)128.18131.88135.64
Year 4 PV (M)150.12155.92161.88
Year 5 PV (M)171.36179.67188.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,853.025,088.315,332.64
Equity Value (M)5,490.365,746.256,011.75
Shares Outstanding (M)332.19332.19332.19
Fair Value$16.53$17.30$18.10
Upside / Downside48.77%55.70%62.89%

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