Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Echom Sci.&Tech.Co.,Ltd (002420.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.77 - $1.05$0.91
Multi-Stage$1.88 - $2.08$1.98
Blended Fair Value$1.44
Current Price$8.66
Upside-83.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.41%-0.51%0.060.080.030.050.050.080.110.080.100.08
YoY Growth---19.67%159.34%-42.65%-4.13%-37.31%-24.98%36.68%-19.37%32.16%21.06%
Dividend Yield--0.92%1.53%0.42%0.81%1.18%2.34%2.61%1.75%1.14%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.237.644.59
Cash Retained (M)50.8250.8250.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.23-7.64-4.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.5943.1846.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)403.85403.85403.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-7.26%-6.26%-5.26%
Fair Value$0.77$0.91$1.05
Upside / Downside-91.12%-89.46%-87.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.1457.3253.7350.3747.2244.2745.59
Payout Ratio16.88%31.51%46.13%60.75%75.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.3218.0624.7930.6035.5939.8442.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-7.26%-6.26%-5.26%
Year 1 PV (M)16.6416.8217.00
Year 2 PV (M)21.0521.5121.97
Year 3 PV (M)23.9524.7425.54
Year 4 PV (M)25.6826.8027.97
Year 5 PV (M)26.4927.9529.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)644.92680.44717.52
Equity Value (M)758.73798.26839.47
Shares Outstanding (M)403.85403.85403.85
Fair Value$1.88$1.98$2.08
Upside / Downside-78.31%-77.18%-76.00%

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