Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qianjiang Yongan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002365.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.58 - $0.82$0.70
Multi-Stage$0.91 - $1.00$0.95
Blended Fair Value$0.83
Current Price$18.08
Upside-95.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.03%18.18%0.100.120.010.110.160.100.070.060.020.04
YoY Growth---16.65%2,185.23%-94.91%-32.39%52.74%51.54%5.06%233.33%-50.00%100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.24%1.64%0.05%1.06%1.75%0.93%0.57%0.32%0.12%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.083.181.91
Cash Retained (M)13.5913.5913.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.08-3.18-1.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.5110.4111.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)289.70289.70289.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Fair Value$0.58$0.70$0.82
Upside / Downside-96.79%-96.13%-95.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.4125.1624.9224.6724.4424.2024.92
Payout Ratio46.52%55.22%63.91%72.61%81.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.8213.8915.9217.9219.8721.7823.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Year 1 PV (M)12.5212.6412.77
Year 2 PV (M)12.9213.1913.46
Year 3 PV (M)13.1013.5013.92
Year 4 PV (M)13.0913.6314.19
Year 5 PV (M)12.9213.6014.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)198.77209.12219.89
Equity Value (M)263.32275.68288.52
Shares Outstanding (M)289.70289.70289.70
Fair Value$0.91$0.95$1.00
Upside / Downside-94.97%-94.74%-94.49%

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