Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nexen Tire Corporation (002350.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41,374.09 - $133,898.18$66,985.75
Multi-Stage$40,532.89 - $44,484.41$42,471.47
Blended Fair Value$54,728.61
Current Price$5,850.00
Upside835.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.83%6.14%115.22100.23105.23105.23105.23100.23100.2399.0179.2774.34
YoY Growth--14.95%-4.75%0.00%0.00%4.98%0.00%1.23%24.90%6.64%17.03%
Dividend Yield--2.13%1.20%1.22%1.64%1.38%2.14%0.98%0.79%0.57%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)161,672.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,378.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)148,293.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32,334.4020,209.0012,125.40
Cash Retained (M)148,293.25148,293.25148,293.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-32,334.40-20,209.00-12,125.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)115,958.85128,084.25136,167.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.75102.75102.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,128.551,246.561,325.23
LTM Dividend per Share130.21130.21130.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,128.551,246.561,325.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,258.761,376.771,455.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Fair Value$41,374.09$66,985.75$133,898.18
Upside / Downside607.25%1,045.06%2,188.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)161,672.00168,772.72176,185.31183,923.47192,001.49200,434.30206,447.33
Payout Ratio8.28%24.62%40.97%57.31%73.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,378.7541,552.1772,174.57105,406.72141,418.79180,390.87190,963.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Year 1 PV (M)38,628.7239,002.3339,375.95
Year 2 PV (M)62,375.9963,588.4264,812.52
Year 3 PV (M)84,687.2887,168.3989,697.50
Year 4 PV (M)105,626.69109,772.81114,039.81
Year 5 PV (M)125,255.78131,431.41137,848.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,748,179.523,932,980.394,124,999.59
Equity Value (M)4,164,753.984,363,943.764,570,773.63
Shares Outstanding (M)102.75102.75102.75
Fair Value$40,532.89$42,471.47$44,484.41
Upside / Downside592.87%626.01%660.42%

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