Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Haining China Leather Market Co.,Ltd (002344.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.27 - $0.36$0.32
Multi-Stage$0.52 - $0.57$0.54
Blended Fair Value$0.43
Current Price$4.41
Upside-90.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.98%-5.39%0.080.090.060.040.030.040.140.120.100.14
YoY Growth---14.13%55.07%56.68%46.20%-39.65%-70.21%19.77%17.49%-30.16%6.54%
Dividend Yield--1.87%2.40%1.21%0.82%0.66%1.09%2.44%1.89%0.98%1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.299.565.73
Cash Retained (M)51.0751.0751.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.29-9.56-5.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.7841.5145.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,260.661,260.661,260.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.36%9.36%9.36%
Growth Rate-7.39%-6.39%-5.39%
Fair Value$0.27$0.32$0.36
Upside / Downside-93.92%-92.85%-91.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76.4571.5666.9862.7058.6954.9456.59
Payout Ratio33.20%44.56%55.92%67.28%78.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.3831.8937.4642.1846.1549.4452.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.36%9.36%9.36%
Growth Rate-7.39%-6.39%-5.39%
Year 1 PV (M)28.8429.1629.47
Year 2 PV (M)30.6531.3231.99
Year 3 PV (M)31.2332.2533.30
Year 4 PV (M)30.9132.2733.67
Year 5 PV (M)29.9531.6133.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)498.43525.93554.63
Equity Value (M)650.02682.53716.38
Shares Outstanding (M)1,260.661,260.661,260.66
Fair Value$0.52$0.54$0.57
Upside / Downside-88.31%-87.72%-87.11%

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