Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Kehua Data Co., Ltd. (002335.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.10 - $176.87$61.93
Multi-Stage$18.16 - $19.88$19.00
Blended Fair Value$40.47
Current Price$71.50
Upside-43.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-27.12%7.79%0.170.150.260.510.580.830.740.290.250.09
YoY Growth--10.08%-41.55%-47.90%-11.86%-30.39%12.45%158.00%14.18%163.94%17.74%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.49%0.56%1.98%2.99%6.42%6.30%1.75%1.20%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)421.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)359.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.3252.7031.62
Cash Retained (M)359.35359.35359.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.32-52.70-31.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)275.03306.65327.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)474.06474.06474.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.650.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.650.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.82
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.10$61.93$176.87
Upside / Downside-55.10%-13.38%147.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)421.61449.01478.20509.28542.39577.64594.97
Payout Ratio14.77%29.81%44.86%59.91%74.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62.26133.87214.52305.09406.54519.88550.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.84%7.84%7.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)122.97124.14125.30
Year 2 PV (M)181.02184.47187.95
Year 3 PV (M)236.50243.29250.20
Year 4 PV (M)289.48300.61312.06
Year 5 PV (M)340.06356.48373.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,440.497,799.878,173.01
Equity Value (M)8,610.529,008.869,422.06
Shares Outstanding (M)474.06474.06474.06
Fair Value$18.16$19.00$19.88
Upside / Downside-74.60%-73.42%-72.20%

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