Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jilin Asia Link Technology Development Co.,Ltd. (002316.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.01 - $0.02$0.02
Multi-Stage$0.03 - $0.03$0.03
Blended Fair Value$0.02
Current Price$5.28
Upside-99.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-59.54%-36.00%0.000.000.050.100.090.100.150.090.080.07
YoY Growth--54.88%-98.59%-46.59%13.45%-18.22%-30.85%74.72%7.40%12.71%-27.32%
Dividend Yield--0.03%0.02%1.26%1.76%1.92%1.50%1.61%0.82%0.59%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.990.620.37
Cash Retained (M)4.124.124.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.99-0.62-0.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.133.503.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)392.82392.82392.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.010.01
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate-36.05%-35.05%-34.05%
Fair Value$0.01$0.02$0.02
Upside / Downside-99.72%-99.69%-99.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.953.212.091.360.880.570.59
Payout Ratio16.75%31.40%46.05%60.70%75.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.831.010.960.820.660.510.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate-36.05%-35.05%-34.05%
Year 1 PV (M)0.920.930.95
Year 2 PV (M)0.800.820.85
Year 3 PV (M)0.620.650.68
Year 4 PV (M)0.460.490.52
Year 5 PV (M)0.320.350.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)6.757.297.87
Equity Value (M)9.8710.5411.25
Shares Outstanding (M)392.82392.82392.82
Fair Value$0.03$0.03$0.03
Upside / Downside-99.52%-99.49%-99.46%

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