Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HeNan Splendor Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (002296.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$73.07 - $154.54$144.83
Multi-Stage$23.31 - $25.53$24.40
Blended Fair Value$84.61
Current Price$10.99
Upside669.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.53%-4.55%0.100.000.000.000.050.010.100.090.100.05
YoY Growth--43,186.71%95.49%-76.87%-98.95%277.74%-86.57%12.86%-16.97%125.58%-71.38%
Dividend Yield--0.90%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.75%0.17%1.37%1.26%0.65%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)302.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)224.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.5437.8322.70
Cash Retained (M)224.76224.76224.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.54-37.83-22.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)164.23186.93202.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)389.51389.51389.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$73.07$144.83$154.54
Upside / Downside564.85%1,217.81%1,306.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)302.68322.35343.31365.62389.39414.70427.14
Payout Ratio25.74%38.59%51.45%64.30%77.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.92124.41176.61235.08300.41373.23395.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)115.83116.93118.03
Year 2 PV (M)153.10156.01158.96
Year 3 PV (M)189.73195.18200.73
Year 4 PV (M)225.73234.41243.34
Year 5 PV (M)261.11273.72286.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,135.638,528.598,936.58
Equity Value (M)9,081.139,504.849,944.45
Shares Outstanding (M)389.51389.51389.51
Fair Value$23.31$24.40$25.53
Upside / Downside112.14%122.04%132.31%

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