Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan) Co., Ltd. (002265.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.95 - $4.39$2.82
Multi-Stage$1.37 - $1.50$1.43
Blended Fair Value$2.13
Current Price$29.84
Upside-92.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.54%4.76%0.010.010.000.000.010.010.010.010.000.00
YoY Growth--14.21%90.39%11.97%-50.02%-20.03%32.97%-35.13%194.17%13.77%-43.34%
Dividend Yield--0.03%0.06%0.03%0.02%0.09%0.10%0.03%0.05%0.01%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)99.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.3413.338.00
Cash Retained (M)99.7799.7799.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.34-13.33-8.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)78.4486.4491.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,105.141,105.141,105.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.68%9.68%9.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.95$2.82$4.39
Upside / Downside-93.48%-90.53%-85.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.68113.61121.00128.86137.24146.16150.54
Payout Ratio6.47%23.18%39.88%56.59%73.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.9126.3348.2672.92100.59131.54139.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.68%9.68%9.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)23.7824.0124.24
Year 2 PV (M)39.3640.1140.87
Year 3 PV (M)53.7255.2656.83
Year 4 PV (M)66.9269.5072.14
Year 5 PV (M)79.0482.8686.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,251.751,312.211,374.98
Equity Value (M)1,514.581,583.951,655.89
Shares Outstanding (M)1,105.141,105.141,105.14
Fair Value$1.37$1.43$1.50
Upside / Downside-95.41%-95.20%-94.98%

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