Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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New Huadu Technology Co., Ltd. (002264.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.47 - $1.96$1.72
Multi-Stage$2.75 - $3.04$2.89
Blended Fair Value$2.31
Current Price$7.13
Upside-67.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-30.01%0.00%0.000.010.020.020.020.020.020.000.020.02
YoY Growth---40.79%-63.25%-17.16%14.01%-18.30%2.71%336.89%-77.43%-12.10%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.06%0.12%0.25%0.40%0.40%0.46%0.29%0.04%0.21%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)247.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)243.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.5630.9718.58
Cash Retained (M)243.51243.51243.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.56-30.97-18.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)193.95212.54224.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)707.86707.86707.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate-8.26%-7.26%-6.26%
Fair Value$1.47$1.72$1.96
Upside / Downside-79.42%-75.87%-72.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)247.78229.79213.10197.63183.28169.97175.07
Payout Ratio1.72%19.38%37.03%54.69%72.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.2744.5378.92108.08132.59152.97161.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate-8.26%-7.26%-6.26%
Year 1 PV (M)40.3240.7641.20
Year 2 PV (M)64.7066.1267.56
Year 3 PV (M)80.2482.8985.60
Year 4 PV (M)89.1393.0897.16
Year 5 PV (M)93.1198.30103.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,577.531,665.411,757.15
Equity Value (M)1,945.032,046.562,152.38
Shares Outstanding (M)707.86707.86707.86
Fair Value$2.75$2.89$3.04
Upside / Downside-61.46%-59.45%-57.35%

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