Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai RAAS Blood Products Co., Ltd. (002252.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.18 - $11.02$7.36
Multi-Stage$3.69 - $4.04$3.86
Blended Fair Value$5.61
Current Price$6.69
Upside-16.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS207.68%18.51%0.070.030.030.030.010.000.030.030.030.02
YoY Growth--117.51%7.14%11.98%148.67%4,149.28%-99.04%-23.74%26.69%9.98%94.72%
Dividend Yield--0.97%0.43%0.44%0.42%0.14%0.00%0.25%0.17%0.13%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,826.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,807.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)365.25228.28136.97
Cash Retained (M)1,807.881,807.881,807.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-365.25-228.28-136.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,442.641,579.601,670.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,636.446,636.446,636.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.18$7.36$11.02
Upside / Downside-22.55%10.08%64.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,826.231,944.932,071.352,205.992,349.382,502.092,577.15
Payout Ratio1.00%18.80%36.60%54.40%72.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.35365.72758.171,200.101,696.272,251.882,383.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)329.40332.52335.65
Year 2 PV (M)615.07626.79638.62
Year 3 PV (M)876.91902.09927.74
Year 4 PV (M)1,116.391,159.321,203.48
Year 5 PV (M)1,334.891,399.371,466.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,238.9221,216.4722,231.43
Equity Value (M)24,511.5925,636.5626,803.22
Shares Outstanding (M)6,636.446,636.446,636.44
Fair Value$3.69$3.86$4.04
Upside / Downside-44.79%-42.26%-39.63%

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