Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

North Chemical Industries Co., Ltd. (002246.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.23 - $3.11$2.67
Multi-Stage$3.47 - $3.82$3.64
Blended Fair Value$3.15
Current Price$22.70
Upside-86.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.91%5.03%0.050.050.040.040.060.060.050.140.020.02
YoY Growth--0.00%11.11%12.39%-27.27%0.00%17.05%-66.00%558.42%-11.12%-22.80%
Dividend Yield--0.48%0.61%0.44%0.34%0.84%0.74%0.44%1.17%0.11%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)206.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)184.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.3225.8315.50
Cash Retained (M)184.65184.65184.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.32-25.83-15.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)143.32158.82169.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)549.26549.26549.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-3.18%-2.18%-1.18%
Fair Value$2.23$2.67$3.11
Upside / Downside-90.18%-88.25%-86.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)206.61202.11197.71193.41189.20185.08190.63
Payout Ratio10.63%26.50%42.38%58.25%74.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.9653.5783.79112.66140.24166.57176.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-3.18%-2.18%-1.18%
Year 1 PV (M)48.2548.7449.24
Year 2 PV (M)67.9769.3870.80
Year 3 PV (M)82.3184.8987.52
Year 4 PV (M)92.2996.16100.15
Year 5 PV (M)98.72103.93109.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,515.901,595.821,679.07
Equity Value (M)1,905.431,998.912,096.13
Shares Outstanding (M)549.26549.26549.26
Fair Value$3.47$3.64$3.82
Upside / Downside-84.72%-83.97%-83.19%

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