Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Orient Zirconic Ind Sci & Tech Co.,Ltd (002167.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.92 - $6.51$5.06
Multi-Stage$5.02 - $5.51$5.26
Blended Fair Value$5.16
Current Price$14.34
Upside-64.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-25.73%-15.06%0.030.050.020.050.100.130.130.170.140.11
YoY Growth---39.10%94.67%-49.89%-50.74%-22.80%-3.24%-20.88%18.49%32.29%-27.85%
Dividend Yield--0.32%0.69%0.32%0.71%1.89%2.19%1.75%1.83%1.23%1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)256.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)244.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.3732.1019.26
Cash Retained (M)244.96244.96244.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.37-32.10-19.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)193.59212.85225.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)774.20774.20774.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate1.44%2.44%3.44%
Fair Value$3.92$5.06$6.51
Upside / Downside-72.70%-64.71%-54.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)256.84263.10269.51276.08282.81289.70298.39
Payout Ratio4.63%21.70%38.78%55.85%72.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.8857.09104.50154.19206.24260.73276.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate1.44%2.44%3.44%
Year 1 PV (M)52.2052.7153.22
Year 2 PV (M)87.3589.0890.82
Year 3 PV (M)117.82121.34124.93
Year 4 PV (M)144.08149.84155.78
Year 5 PV (M)166.52174.90183.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,317.783,484.583,658.02
Equity Value (M)3,885.754,072.454,266.38
Shares Outstanding (M)774.20774.20774.20
Fair Value$5.02$5.26$5.51
Upside / Downside-65.00%-63.32%-61.57%

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