Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Invengo Information Technology Co., Ltd (002161.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.03 - $1.48$1.25
Multi-Stage$2.19 - $2.41$2.30
Blended Fair Value$1.77
Current Price$7.63
Upside-76.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.32%26.49%0.060.050.060.050.030.020.040.010.010.01
YoY Growth--23.13%-9.81%8.14%98.37%5.84%-42.83%336.32%42.86%0.00%16.67%
Dividend Yield--1.08%1.01%0.98%1.01%0.59%0.28%0.56%0.15%0.07%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)109.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.8413.658.19
Cash Retained (M)76.9276.9276.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.84-13.65-8.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.0863.2768.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)740.50740.50740.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.43%7.43%7.43%
Growth Rate-3.61%-2.61%-1.61%
Fair Value$1.03$1.25$1.48
Upside / Downside-86.50%-83.60%-80.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)109.22106.36103.58100.8898.2495.6798.54
Payout Ratio29.57%41.65%53.74%65.83%77.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.2944.3155.6766.4076.5486.1091.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.43%7.43%7.43%
Growth Rate-3.61%-2.61%-1.61%
Year 1 PV (M)40.8241.2441.67
Year 2 PV (M)47.2548.2449.23
Year 3 PV (M)51.9353.5655.23
Year 4 PV (M)55.1557.4759.87
Year 5 PV (M)57.1560.1863.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,366.471,438.841,514.25
Equity Value (M)1,618.771,699.531,783.57
Shares Outstanding (M)740.50740.50740.50
Fair Value$2.19$2.30$2.41
Upside / Downside-71.35%-69.92%-68.43%

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