Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hunan Gold Corporation Limited (002155.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.21 - $37.96$24.77
Multi-Stage$12.47 - $13.62$13.04
Blended Fair Value$18.91
Current Price$22.44
Upside-15.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.11%3.10%0.110.090.060.010.050.070.050.090.040.04
YoY Growth--26.67%39.30%376.71%-70.27%-38.18%40.56%-37.98%109.77%2.16%-53.03%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.86%0.56%0.17%0.75%1.23%0.79%1.24%0.46%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,208.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)277.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)930.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)241.70151.0690.64
Cash Retained (M)930.97930.97930.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-241.70-151.06-90.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)689.26779.90840.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,380.381,380.381,380.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.560.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.560.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate9.79%9.79%9.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.21$24.77$37.96
Upside / Downside-23.30%10.40%69.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,208.521,287.071,370.731,459.831,554.721,655.771,705.45
Payout Ratio22.97%36.37%49.78%63.19%76.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)277.55468.15682.35922.411,190.811,490.201,577.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.79%9.79%9.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)422.38426.39430.39
Year 2 PV (M)555.47566.05576.73
Year 3 PV (M)677.50696.95716.76
Year 4 PV (M)789.13819.48850.70
Year 5 PV (M)891.00934.04978.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,884.7414,555.3715,251.68
Equity Value (M)17,220.2217,998.2718,804.98
Shares Outstanding (M)1,380.381,380.381,380.38
Fair Value$12.47$13.04$13.62
Upside / Downside-44.41%-41.90%-39.29%

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