Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.,Ltd. (002126.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.03 - $167.17$57.71
Multi-Stage$19.05 - $20.83$19.92
Blended Fair Value$38.82
Current Price$41.36
Upside-6.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.95%10.95%0.190.160.160.140.160.130.140.090.080.07
YoY Growth--13.16%0.13%20.45%-12.56%22.85%-8.36%62.09%8.09%21.19%-0.97%
Dividend Yield--0.67%0.89%1.15%1.48%1.58%1.55%1.55%0.92%0.88%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)851.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)154.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)696.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)170.22106.3963.83
Cash Retained (M)696.25696.25696.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-170.22-106.39-63.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)526.03589.86632.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)868.05868.05868.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.680.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.680.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.03$57.71$167.17
Upside / Downside-22.55%39.53%304.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)851.08906.40965.321,028.071,094.891,166.061,201.04
Payout Ratio18.19%32.55%46.92%61.28%75.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)154.84295.07452.89629.97828.161,049.451,110.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)270.44273.01275.57
Year 2 PV (M)380.43387.68394.99
Year 3 PV (M)485.01498.94513.12
Year 4 PV (M)584.38606.85629.96
Year 5 PV (M)678.71711.49745.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,134.6514,817.3615,526.20
Equity Value (M)16,533.6317,295.3318,085.38
Shares Outstanding (M)868.05868.05868.05
Fair Value$19.05$19.92$20.83
Upside / Downside-53.95%-51.83%-49.63%

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