Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tech-Bank Food Co., Ltd. (002124.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.70 - $33.71$31.59
Multi-Stage$5.23 - $5.73$5.48
Blended Fair Value$18.53
Current Price$2.92
Upside534.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.83%9.11%0.070.080.130.420.050.040.060.050.040.03
YoY Growth---9.22%-37.26%-69.49%703.14%36.93%-39.73%21.92%45.20%11.66%5.02%
Dividend Yield--2.35%2.41%2.19%4.74%0.44%0.48%0.49%1.35%0.73%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)376.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)100.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)276.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.3347.0828.25
Cash Retained (M)276.47276.47276.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.33-47.08-28.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)201.14229.39248.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,222.542,222.542,222.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.70$31.59$33.71
Upside / Downside506.09%981.73%1,054.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)376.67401.16427.23455.00484.58516.07531.56
Payout Ratio26.60%39.28%51.96%64.64%77.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)100.20157.58221.99294.11374.68464.47491.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)146.83148.23149.62
Year 2 PV (M)192.76196.43200.13
Year 3 PV (M)237.97244.80251.76
Year 4 PV (M)282.49293.35304.52
Year 5 PV (M)326.31342.07358.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,441.7910,946.1311,469.78
Equity Value (M)11,628.1512,171.0212,734.26
Shares Outstanding (M)2,222.542,222.542,222.54
Fair Value$5.23$5.48$5.73
Upside / Downside79.18%87.54%96.22%

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