Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Wohua Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002107.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.53 - $5.38$3.60
Multi-Stage$1.82 - $1.99$1.90
Blended Fair Value$2.75
Current Price$6.24
Upside-55.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.54%30.81%0.250.000.260.270.080.030.000.000.060.06
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-3.09%224.05%156.01%0.00%0.00%-100.00%2.94%250.00%
Dividend Yield--5.67%0.00%3.91%3.55%1.06%0.49%0.00%0.00%0.63%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)77.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)73.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.509.695.81
Cash Retained (M)73.5773.5773.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.50-9.69-5.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.0763.8867.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)574.35574.35574.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.53$3.60$5.38
Upside / Downside-59.38%-42.30%-13.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)77.4982.5387.8993.6099.69106.17109.35
Payout Ratio5.06%22.05%39.04%56.02%73.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.9218.1934.3152.4472.7895.55101.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)16.3916.5416.70
Year 2 PV (M)27.8328.3628.89
Year 3 PV (M)38.3139.4140.53
Year 4 PV (M)47.8849.7351.62
Year 5 PV (M)56.6259.3562.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)857.19898.60941.58
Equity Value (M)1,044.221,091.981,141.51
Shares Outstanding (M)574.35574.35574.35
Fair Value$1.82$1.90$1.99
Upside / Downside-70.86%-69.53%-68.15%

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