Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wiscom System Co., Ltd. (002090.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.22 - $3.56$2.83
Multi-Stage$2.59 - $2.83$2.71
Blended Fair Value$2.77
Current Price$11.41
Upside-75.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.50%5.80%0.090.030.020.090.030.050.090.090.090.08
YoY Growth--257.84%5.18%-74.98%276.46%-46.88%-46.67%0.00%2.63%11.47%52.85%
Dividend Yield--0.97%0.26%0.18%1.11%0.32%0.54%0.67%0.74%0.65%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)82.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.4310.276.16
Cash Retained (M)53.0153.0153.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.43-10.27-6.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.5842.7446.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.51400.51400.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate2.17%3.17%4.17%
Fair Value$2.22$2.83$3.56
Upside / Downside-80.54%-75.23%-68.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)82.1784.7787.4590.2293.0896.0298.90
Payout Ratio35.48%46.39%57.29%68.19%79.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.1639.3250.1061.5373.6286.4291.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate2.17%3.17%4.17%
Year 1 PV (M)35.4935.8436.19
Year 2 PV (M)40.8241.6242.43
Year 3 PV (M)45.2446.5847.95
Year 4 PV (M)48.8650.8152.80
Year 5 PV (M)51.7754.3657.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)815.95856.67899.00
Equity Value (M)1,038.141,085.881,135.42
Shares Outstanding (M)400.51400.51400.51
Fair Value$2.59$2.71$2.83
Upside / Downside-77.28%-76.24%-75.15%

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