Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Sunpaper Co., Ltd. (002078.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$190.28 - $224.19$210.10
Multi-Stage$85.81 - $94.16$89.91
Blended Fair Value$150.00
Current Price$14.29
Upside949.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.71%9.89%0.490.410.410.280.260.270.270.200.180.18
YoY Growth--18.49%0.29%44.94%9.73%-3.78%-0.97%37.67%13.02%-1.46%-7.02%
Dividend Yield--3.33%2.82%3.39%2.50%1.65%3.07%3.66%1.80%2.45%3.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,142.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)338.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,803.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)628.42392.77235.66
Cash Retained (M)2,803.862,803.862,803.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-628.42-392.77-235.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,175.442,411.102,568.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,787.372,787.372,787.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.870.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.870.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.900.991.04
WACC / Discount Rate4.38%4.38%4.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$190.28$210.10$224.19
Upside / Downside1,231.58%1,370.23%1,468.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,142.123,346.363,563.883,795.534,042.244,304.984,434.13
Payout Ratio10.77%26.61%42.46%58.31%74.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)338.26890.541,513.192,213.032,997.443,874.484,101.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.38%4.38%4.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)845.20853.22861.23
Year 2 PV (M)1,363.031,388.991,415.20
Year 3 PV (M)1,891.921,946.232,001.57
Year 4 PV (M)2,432.062,525.592,621.79
Year 5 PV (M)2,983.613,127.723,277.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)229,681.67240,775.38252,293.67
Equity Value (M)239,197.50250,617.13262,470.81
Shares Outstanding (M)2,787.372,787.372,787.37
Fair Value$85.81$89.91$94.16
Upside / Downside500.52%529.19%558.95%

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