Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu Dagang Co., Ltd. (002077.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.17 - $0.22$0.20
Multi-Stage$0.35 - $0.39$0.36
Blended Fair Value$0.28
Current Price$17.14
Upside-98.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-32.06%-23.80%0.040.040.050.080.150.260.280.180.230.40
YoY Growth---3.38%-15.45%-38.27%-48.57%-44.20%-6.57%55.26%-22.74%-41.17%-30.86%
Dividend Yield--0.27%0.28%0.28%1.17%2.65%4.34%4.00%1.65%1.62%2.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.885.553.33
Cash Retained (M)31.5431.5431.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.88-5.55-3.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.6625.9928.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)544.65544.65544.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate-20.45%-19.45%-18.45%
Fair Value$0.17$0.20$0.22
Upside / Downside-98.99%-98.84%-98.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.4235.7828.8223.2218.7015.0615.52
Payout Ratio29.00%41.20%53.40%65.60%77.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.8814.7415.3915.2314.5513.5614.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate-20.45%-19.45%-18.45%
Year 1 PV (M)13.3013.4713.64
Year 2 PV (M)12.5312.8513.17
Year 3 PV (M)11.1911.6212.06
Year 4 PV (M)9.6510.1410.66
Year 5 PV (M)8.118.649.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)133.41142.01151.05
Equity Value (M)188.20198.73209.75
Shares Outstanding (M)544.65544.65544.65
Fair Value$0.35$0.36$0.39
Upside / Downside-97.98%-97.87%-97.75%

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