Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Mesnac Co., Ltd. (002073.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.66 - $92.20$86.40
Multi-Stage$13.38 - $14.64$14.00
Blended Fair Value$50.20
Current Price$8.98
Upside459.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS57.49%3.32%0.160.110.060.030.030.020.080.060.070.12
YoY Growth--49.89%79.63%80.33%9.25%82.66%-80.66%50.35%-22.45%-40.72%7.04%
Dividend Yield--1.75%1.51%0.81%0.52%0.66%0.40%1.34%0.72%0.70%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)465.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)145.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)319.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)93.1758.2334.94
Cash Retained (M)319.86319.86319.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-93.17-58.23-34.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)226.70261.63284.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,004.831,004.831,004.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.66$86.40$92.20
Upside / Downside319.34%862.19%926.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)465.84496.12528.37562.71599.29638.24657.39
Payout Ratio31.34%43.07%54.80%66.53%78.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)145.98213.68289.56374.40469.05574.42608.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)198.68200.56202.44
Year 2 PV (M)250.33255.10259.92
Year 3 PV (M)300.97309.61318.41
Year 4 PV (M)350.58364.07377.94
Year 5 PV (M)399.21418.49438.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,941.1612,517.9313,116.76
Equity Value (M)13,440.9314,065.7514,713.97
Shares Outstanding (M)1,004.831,004.831,004.83
Fair Value$13.38$14.00$14.64
Upside / Downside48.96%55.88%63.07%

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