Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China CAMC Engineering Co., Ltd. (002051.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.40 - $10.18$6.44
Multi-Stage$18.67 - $20.66$19.65
Blended Fair Value$13.05
Current Price$8.28
Upside57.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.01%-1.47%0.170.150.120.020.170.320.380.280.200.22
YoY Growth--11.62%28.44%585.61%-89.85%-47.13%-14.78%36.66%39.05%-9.05%11.04%
Dividend Yield--2.12%2.01%1.12%0.20%2.31%3.92%2.39%1.72%0.85%1.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)284.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)231.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.9535.5921.36
Cash Retained (M)231.36231.36231.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.95-35.59-21.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)174.41195.77210.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,221.661,221.661,221.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.22
WACC / Discount Rate0.62%0.62%0.62%
Growth Rate-3.47%-2.47%-1.47%
Fair Value$4.40$6.44$10.18
Upside / Downside-46.80%-22.17%22.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)284.74277.71270.86264.18257.66251.30258.84
Payout Ratio18.75%33.00%47.25%61.50%75.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.3891.64127.98162.47195.17226.17239.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.62%0.62%0.62%
Growth Rate-3.47%-2.47%-1.47%
Year 1 PV (M)90.1491.0792.01
Year 2 PV (M)123.83126.41129.01
Year 3 PV (M)154.63159.49164.44
Year 4 PV (M)182.73190.42198.35
Year 5 PV (M)208.28219.30230.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,049.2423,215.2124,429.99
Equity Value (M)22,808.8524,001.8925,244.57
Shares Outstanding (M)1,221.661,221.661,221.66
Fair Value$18.67$19.65$20.66
Upside / Downside125.49%137.28%149.57%

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