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Definitive Analysis

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Wangneng Environment Co., Ltd. (002034.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$94.94 - $260.67$244.28
Multi-Stage$36.53 - $39.98$38.22
Blended Fair Value$141.25
Current Price$16.78
Upside741.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS56.00%20.51%0.840.660.280.460.090.090.130.080.120.00
YoY Growth--28.08%133.64%-38.96%400.71%1.01%-32.00%77.56%-36.13%2,926.09%-97.00%
Dividend Yield--4.54%4.77%1.57%2.49%0.50%0.70%0.72%0.28%0.37%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)599.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)205.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)394.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)119.9774.9844.99
Cash Retained (M)394.72394.72394.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-119.97-74.98-44.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)274.75319.74349.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)457.67457.67457.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.700.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.700.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$94.94$244.28$260.67
Upside / Downside465.77%1,355.79%1,453.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)599.87638.86680.38724.61771.71821.87846.52
Payout Ratio34.20%45.36%56.52%67.68%78.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)205.14289.78384.55490.41608.41739.68783.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)269.12271.67274.22
Year 2 PV (M)331.67337.99344.37
Year 3 PV (M)392.83404.10415.59
Year 4 PV (M)452.60470.01487.91
Year 5 PV (M)511.03535.71561.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,759.7415,472.6416,212.82
Equity Value (M)16,716.9817,492.1218,296.25
Shares Outstanding (M)457.67457.67457.67
Fair Value$36.53$38.22$39.98
Upside / Downside117.68%127.77%138.24%

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