Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangdong Shirongzhaoye Co., Ltd. (002016.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.41 - $0.53$0.47
Multi-Stage$1.75 - $1.97$1.86
Blended Fair Value$1.17
Current Price$6.11
Upside-80.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-37.39%-10.31%0.060.000.310.130.070.640.820.460.130.24
YoY Growth--47,796.48%-99.96%134.96%99.38%-89.75%-22.20%77.06%259.61%-47.42%34.37%
Dividend Yield--1.05%0.00%4.82%1.68%1.06%9.37%7.38%3.38%1.38%2.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)137.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)117.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.5117.1910.32
Cash Retained (M)117.30117.30117.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.51-17.19-10.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)89.79100.11106.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)810.67810.67810.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate5.51%5.51%5.51%
Growth Rate-20.65%-19.65%-18.65%
Fair Value$0.41$0.47$0.53
Upside / Downside-93.26%-92.24%-91.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)137.56110.5388.8271.3757.3546.0847.47
Payout Ratio14.72%29.78%44.83%59.89%74.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.2532.9239.8242.7442.9841.4743.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.51%5.51%5.51%
Growth Rate-20.65%-19.65%-18.65%
Year 1 PV (M)30.8131.2031.59
Year 2 PV (M)34.8935.7736.67
Year 3 PV (M)35.0536.3937.77
Year 4 PV (M)32.9934.6836.44
Year 5 PV (M)29.7931.7233.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,256.381,337.571,422.89
Equity Value (M)1,419.911,507.321,599.09
Shares Outstanding (M)810.67810.67810.67
Fair Value$1.75$1.86$1.97
Upside / Downside-71.33%-69.57%-67.72%

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