Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

OK Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (001223.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.16 - $8.76$7.44
Multi-Stage$9.30 - $10.22$9.75
Blended Fair Value$8.60
Current Price$50.98
Upside-83.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS93.97%0.00%0.740.000.010.160.550.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--42,331.54%-86.25%-92.08%-70.82%1,936.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.00%0.01%0.02%0.28%0.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)67.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.598.495.10
Cash Retained (M)55.6555.6555.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.59-8.49-5.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.0647.1650.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.3573.3573.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.640.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.640.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.79%9.79%9.79%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.16$7.44$8.76
Upside / Downside-87.91%-85.41%-82.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)67.9567.2766.6065.9365.2764.6266.56
Payout Ratio18.10%32.48%46.86%61.24%75.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.3021.8531.2140.3749.3658.1661.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.79%9.79%9.79%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)19.7019.9020.10
Year 2 PV (M)25.3725.8926.42
Year 3 PV (M)29.6030.5131.44
Year 4 PV (M)32.6233.9735.37
Year 5 PV (M)34.6636.4638.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)540.50568.65597.95
Equity Value (M)682.44715.38749.62
Shares Outstanding (M)73.3573.3573.35
Fair Value$9.30$9.75$10.22
Upside / Downside-81.75%-80.87%-79.95%

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