Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co., Ltd. (001213.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.19 - $1.84$1.49
Multi-Stage$2.73 - $3.01$2.87
Blended Fair Value$2.18
Current Price$4.17
Upside-47.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.060.040.020.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--56.76%58.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.45%0.91%0.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)566.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)271.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)295.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.3570.8442.51
Cash Retained (M)295.65295.65295.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.35-70.84-42.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)182.29224.80253.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,444.614,444.614,444.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.19$1.49$1.84
Upside / Downside-71.45%-64.19%-55.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)566.76561.09555.48549.92544.42538.98555.15
Payout Ratio47.84%56.27%64.70%73.13%81.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)271.11315.72359.40402.18444.07485.08513.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)293.74296.74299.73
Year 2 PV (M)311.10317.49323.93
Year 3 PV (M)323.90333.92344.14
Year 4 PV (M)332.74346.53360.75
Year 5 PV (M)338.17355.78374.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,539.4211,088.2311,659.67
Equity Value (M)12,139.0712,738.6813,362.33
Shares Outstanding (M)4,444.614,444.614,444.61
Fair Value$2.73$2.87$3.01
Upside / Downside-34.50%-31.27%-27.90%

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