Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Suncha Technology Co., Ltd. (001211.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.89 - $6.68$5.10
Multi-Stage$16.85 - $18.60$17.70
Blended Fair Value$11.40
Current Price$26.48
Upside-56.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-6.45%0.00%0.240.290.600.600.140.330.140.140.000.00
YoY Growth---16.24%-52.42%-0.05%330.83%-58.25%145.30%-0.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.13%1.59%2.69%2.21%0.37%0.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.542.841.70
Cash Retained (M)8.958.958.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.54-2.84-1.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.416.117.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)71.5871.5871.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.280.29
WACC / Discount Rate4.39%4.39%4.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.89$5.10$6.68
Upside / Downside-85.31%-80.75%-74.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22.7122.4822.2622.0321.8121.6022.24
Payout Ratio60.59%66.47%72.35%78.24%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.7614.9416.1017.2418.3519.4420.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.39%4.39%4.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)14.1714.3214.46
Year 2 PV (M)14.4814.7815.08
Year 3 PV (M)14.7015.1515.62
Year 4 PV (M)14.8415.4516.08
Year 5 PV (M)14.9015.6816.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,132.921,191.911,253.34
Equity Value (M)1,206.001,267.291,331.06
Shares Outstanding (M)71.5871.5871.58
Fair Value$16.85$17.70$18.60
Upside / Downside-36.37%-33.14%-29.77%

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