Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangxi Hechi Chemical Co., Ltd (000953.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.08 - $0.11$0.10
Multi-Stage$0.22 - $0.24$0.23
Blended Fair Value$0.16
Current Price$7.26
Upside-97.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.49%-45.54%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.030.100.13
YoY Growth---4.00%21.17%-75.35%-4.66%57.66%0.00%-100.00%-73.11%-18.81%-34.19%
Dividend Yield--0.01%0.01%0.01%0.02%0.03%0.02%0.00%0.32%0.87%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.580.990.59
Cash Retained (M)7.867.867.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.58-0.99-0.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.286.887.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)366.68366.68366.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate7.22%7.22%7.22%
Growth Rate-11.20%-10.20%-9.20%
Fair Value$0.08$0.10$0.11
Upside / Downside-98.86%-98.66%-98.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7.907.096.375.725.144.614.75
Payout Ratio0.42%18.33%36.25%54.17%72.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.031.302.313.103.704.154.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.22%7.22%7.22%
Growth Rate-11.20%-10.20%-9.20%
Year 1 PV (M)1.201.211.23
Year 2 PV (M)1.962.012.05
Year 3 PV (M)2.432.512.60
Year 4 PV (M)2.682.802.93
Year 5 PV (M)2.772.933.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)69.4973.4977.68
Equity Value (M)80.5384.9589.58
Shares Outstanding (M)366.68366.68366.68
Fair Value$0.22$0.23$0.24
Upside / Downside-96.97%-96.81%-96.64%

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