Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hunan Jingfeng Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (000908.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.52 - $0.67$0.60
Multi-Stage$1.64 - $1.84$1.74
Blended Fair Value$1.17
Current Price$5.93
Upside-80.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-31.14%-7.34%0.020.030.040.100.100.100.010.100.090.06
YoY Growth---43.24%-40.42%-56.68%2.51%3.11%883.84%-90.38%14.32%54.52%80.14%
Dividend Yield--0.34%1.18%1.49%2.39%2.32%2.78%0.17%1.82%0.93%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)146.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.3119.5711.74
Cash Retained (M)146.50146.50146.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.31-19.57-11.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)115.19126.93134.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)880.83880.83880.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate-16.35%-15.35%-14.35%
Fair Value$0.52$0.60$0.67
Upside / Downside-91.24%-89.86%-88.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.56132.53112.1994.9780.4068.0670.10
Payout Ratio6.42%23.14%39.85%56.57%73.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.0630.6744.7153.7358.9261.2564.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate-16.35%-15.35%-14.35%
Year 1 PV (M)28.4428.7829.12
Year 2 PV (M)38.4639.3840.32
Year 3 PV (M)42.8544.4146.00
Year 4 PV (M)43.5845.7147.90
Year 5 PV (M)42.0244.5947.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,251.171,327.771,408.06
Equity Value (M)1,446.531,530.631,618.69
Shares Outstanding (M)880.83880.83880.83
Fair Value$1.64$1.74$1.84
Upside / Downside-72.31%-70.70%-69.01%

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