Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ning Xia Yin Xing Energy Co.,Ltd (000862.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.83 - $1.16$0.99
Multi-Stage$2.46 - $2.71$2.58
Blended Fair Value$1.79
Current Price$5.54
Upside-67.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.18%-10.89%0.160.250.240.280.320.320.380.380.390.51
YoY Growth---36.99%6.51%-15.42%-11.88%-1.36%-14.22%-0.69%-3.50%-22.74%0.73%
Dividend Yield--3.28%4.48%3.58%3.66%6.62%8.77%5.52%9.82%4.96%7.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)133.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.7716.7310.04
Cash Retained (M)28.7328.7328.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.77-16.73-10.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.9612.0018.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)917.82917.82917.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-6.59%-5.59%-4.59%
Fair Value$0.83$0.99$1.16
Upside / Downside-85.02%-82.07%-79.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)133.84126.36119.30112.63106.34100.39103.40
Payout Ratio78.53%80.83%83.12%85.41%87.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.11102.1399.1696.2093.2690.3595.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-6.59%-5.59%-4.59%
Year 1 PV (M)94.8595.8696.88
Year 2 PV (M)85.5287.3689.22
Year 3 PV (M)77.0579.5582.11
Year 4 PV (M)69.3772.3975.50
Year 5 PV (M)62.4165.8369.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,866.731,968.812,075.31
Equity Value (M)2,255.932,369.802,488.41
Shares Outstanding (M)917.82917.82917.82
Fair Value$2.46$2.58$2.71
Upside / Downside-55.63%-53.39%-51.06%

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