Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.,Ltd (000792.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.68 - $7.73$6.72
Multi-Stage$9.27 - $10.23$9.74
Blended Fair Value$8.23
Current Price$20.85
Upside-60.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.82%-12.25%0.110.050.050.050.070.210.410.430.440.49
YoY Growth--131.51%-3.19%-10.11%-18.22%-67.63%-49.81%-4.58%-0.65%-10.42%19.06%
Dividend Yield--0.67%0.29%0.22%0.18%0.19%2.33%5.87%3.36%3.56%3.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,024.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)172.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,852.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,204.93753.08451.85
Cash Retained (M)5,852.575,852.575,852.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,204.93-753.08-451.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,647.645,099.495,400.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,291.495,291.495,291.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.880.961.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.880.961.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-5.23%-4.23%-3.23%
Fair Value$5.68$6.72$7.73
Upside / Downside-72.74%-67.75%-62.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,024.645,769.855,525.835,292.145,068.334,853.984,999.60
Payout Ratio2.86%20.28%37.71%55.14%72.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)172.071,170.412,083.992,918.213,678.154,368.584,624.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-5.23%-4.23%-3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)1,053.281,064.391,075.50
Year 2 PV (M)1,687.751,723.561,759.74
Year 3 PV (M)2,126.842,194.882,264.36
Year 4 PV (M)2,412.422,515.872,622.60
Year 5 PV (M)2,578.522,717.472,862.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,218.3141,331.5543,534.92
Equity Value (M)49,077.1351,547.7254,119.46
Shares Outstanding (M)5,291.495,291.495,291.49
Fair Value$9.27$9.74$10.23
Upside / Downside-55.52%-53.28%-50.95%

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