Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co., Ltd. (000778.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.49 - $0.67$0.58
Multi-Stage$1.56 - $1.73$1.64
Blended Fair Value$1.11
Current Price$3.85
Upside-71.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.91%-6.15%0.170.250.260.300.300.350.320.240.260.34
YoY Growth---30.07%-4.39%-12.71%-1.16%-13.13%8.36%32.26%-5.56%-24.18%3.06%
Dividend Yield--5.01%6.27%6.43%5.94%7.47%10.05%6.07%4.89%4.70%6.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)383.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)232.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)150.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.6847.9328.76
Cash Retained (M)150.46150.46150.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.68-47.93-28.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.78102.54121.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,971.183,971.183,971.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-8.15%-7.15%-6.15%
Fair Value$0.49$0.58$0.67
Upside / Downside-87.29%-84.91%-82.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)383.41355.98330.52306.88284.92264.54272.48
Payout Ratio60.76%66.61%72.45%78.30%84.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)232.95237.10239.47240.29239.77238.09252.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-8.15%-7.15%-6.15%
Year 1 PV (M)220.55222.95225.35
Year 2 PV (M)207.20211.74216.32
Year 3 PV (M)193.39199.78206.30
Year 4 PV (M)179.50187.44195.65
Year 5 PV (M)165.80175.02184.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,242.205,533.855,838.35
Equity Value (M)6,208.646,530.796,866.64
Shares Outstanding (M)3,971.183,971.183,971.18
Fair Value$1.56$1.64$1.73
Upside / Downside-59.39%-57.28%-55.09%

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