Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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China Nonferrous Metal Industry's Foreign Engineering and Construction Co.,Ltd. (000758.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.23 - $1.66$1.45
Multi-Stage$3.25 - $3.60$3.43
Blended Fair Value$2.44
Current Price$6.78
Upside-64.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.79%-9.91%0.060.090.090.120.140.140.220.260.220.21
YoY Growth---33.99%6.52%-27.08%-12.28%-0.10%-37.09%-15.92%19.06%2.98%20.82%
Dividend Yield--1.22%1.91%1.59%2.58%2.58%3.04%4.22%4.46%2.46%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)546.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)181.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)365.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)109.3168.3240.99
Cash Retained (M)365.23365.23365.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-109.31-68.32-40.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)255.92296.91324.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,013.202,013.202,013.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.22%7.22%7.22%
Growth Rate-8.90%-7.90%-6.90%
Fair Value$1.23$1.45$1.66
Upside / Downside-81.90%-78.66%-75.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)546.53503.37463.62427.00393.28362.22373.09
Payout Ratio33.17%44.54%55.90%67.27%78.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)181.30224.20259.18287.24309.26326.00345.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.22%7.22%7.22%
Growth Rate-8.90%-7.90%-6.90%
Year 1 PV (M)206.82209.09211.36
Year 2 PV (M)220.56225.43230.35
Year 3 PV (M)225.50233.01240.68
Year 4 PV (M)223.97233.96244.29
Year 5 PV (M)217.79230.01242.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,457.945,764.146,083.92
Equity Value (M)6,552.586,895.647,253.38
Shares Outstanding (M)2,013.202,013.202,013.20
Fair Value$3.25$3.43$3.60
Upside / Downside-51.99%-49.48%-46.86%

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