Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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North Copper (Shanxi) Co., Ltd. (000737.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.04 - $80.44$60.58
Multi-Stage$9.91 - $10.85$10.37
Blended Fair Value$35.47
Current Price$15.96
Upside122.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS53.91%13.07%0.250.110.100.120.250.030.050.040.040.04
YoY Growth--135.33%7.70%-19.33%-51.05%762.86%-38.93%25.83%6.05%-18.26%-40.65%
Dividend Yield--2.39%1.20%1.55%1.86%4.36%1.09%1.01%0.98%0.50%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)755.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)209.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)546.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)151.1094.4356.66
Cash Retained (M)546.22546.22546.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-151.10-94.43-56.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)395.12451.78489.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,867.901,867.901,867.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.04$60.58$80.44
Upside / Downside31.85%279.55%403.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)755.48804.58856.88912.58971.901,035.071,066.12
Payout Ratio27.70%40.16%52.62%65.08%77.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)209.26323.11450.89593.90753.61931.56986.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)298.80301.63304.46
Year 2 PV (M)385.58392.92400.34
Year 3 PV (M)469.66483.14496.88
Year 4 PV (M)551.11572.30594.10
Year 5 PV (M)629.98660.41692.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,178.5016,959.9317,771.26
Equity Value (M)18,513.6319,370.3420,259.05
Shares Outstanding (M)1,867.901,867.901,867.90
Fair Value$9.91$10.37$10.85
Upside / Downside-37.90%-35.02%-32.04%

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