Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Fenghua Advanced Technology (Holding) Co., Ltd. (000636.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.02 - $10.74$7.15
Multi-Stage$3.58 - $3.91$3.74
Blended Fair Value$5.45
Current Price$15.65
Upside-65.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-24.37%14.18%0.060.140.280.070.010.240.060.040.050.03
YoY Growth---56.67%-51.02%295.79%431.76%-94.46%290.72%60.91%-22.61%76.28%77.50%
Dividend Yield--0.41%1.11%1.55%0.34%0.04%1.48%0.38%0.26%0.48%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)300.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)294.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.0737.5422.53
Cash Retained (M)294.90294.90294.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.07-37.54-22.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)234.83257.36272.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,133.641,133.641,133.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.02$7.15$10.74
Upside / Downside-67.91%-54.30%-31.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)300.35319.87340.66362.80386.38411.50423.84
Payout Ratio1.81%19.45%37.09%54.72%72.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.4462.21126.34198.54279.60370.35392.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)56.0556.5857.11
Year 2 PV (M)102.55104.51106.48
Year 3 PV (M)145.19149.36153.61
Year 4 PV (M)184.22191.30198.59
Year 5 PV (M)219.84230.46241.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,347.493,509.173,677.04
Equity Value (M)4,055.344,241.384,434.32
Shares Outstanding (M)1,133.641,133.641,133.64
Fair Value$3.58$3.74$3.91
Upside / Downside-77.14%-76.09%-75.01%

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