Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shengda Resources Co.,Ltd. (000603.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.94 - $12.73$10.10
Multi-Stage$10.97 - $12.03$11.49
Blended Fair Value$10.80
Current Price$26.44
Upside-59.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.86%58.54%0.180.090.100.130.190.160.080.510.020.00
YoY Growth--110.95%-12.57%-24.61%-30.98%19.96%107.11%-85.12%3,295.61%469.71%46.14%
Dividend Yield--1.16%0.66%0.58%0.99%1.46%1.41%0.68%4.51%0.10%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)513.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)390.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)102.6964.1838.51
Cash Retained (M)390.34390.34390.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-102.69-64.18-38.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)287.64326.15351.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)690.16690.16690.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.470.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.470.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate0.86%1.86%2.86%
Fair Value$7.94$10.10$12.73
Upside / Downside-69.98%-61.79%-51.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)513.47523.00532.71542.60552.67562.92579.81
Payout Ratio23.98%37.18%50.39%63.59%76.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.13194.48268.42345.05424.43506.63536.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate0.86%1.86%2.86%
Year 1 PV (M)177.61179.38181.14
Year 2 PV (M)223.89228.36232.86
Year 3 PV (M)262.85270.75278.80
Year 4 PV (M)295.29307.18319.42
Year 5 PV (M)321.92338.20355.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,289.346,607.386,938.16
Equity Value (M)7,570.917,931.248,305.51
Shares Outstanding (M)690.16690.16690.16
Fair Value$10.97$11.49$12.03
Upside / Downside-58.51%-56.54%-54.48%

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