Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Chongqing Yukaifa Co., Ltd (000514.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.51 - $0.69$0.60
Multi-Stage$1.74 - $1.92$1.83
Blended Fair Value$1.22
Current Price$5.52
Upside-77.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.42%-7.48%0.100.090.150.150.110.100.120.140.120.21
YoY Growth--9.89%-38.75%-0.08%36.95%6.33%-17.42%-10.09%12.04%-41.88%-2.95%
Dividend Yield--2.51%2.61%3.62%2.27%3.04%2.38%2.41%2.05%1.24%2.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)93.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.6011.636.98
Cash Retained (M)41.6641.6641.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.60-11.63-6.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.0630.0434.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)843.77843.77843.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-9.48%-8.48%-7.48%
Fair Value$0.51$0.60$0.69
Upside / Downside-90.78%-89.11%-87.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)93.0185.1277.9071.2965.2459.7161.50
Payout Ratio55.20%62.16%69.12%76.08%83.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.3452.9153.8554.2454.1853.7456.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-9.48%-8.48%-7.48%
Year 1 PV (M)49.2849.8350.37
Year 2 PV (M)46.7147.7548.80
Year 3 PV (M)43.8245.2946.79
Year 4 PV (M)40.7742.6044.49
Year 5 PV (M)37.6639.7942.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,247.641,318.091,391.70
Equity Value (M)1,465.881,543.341,624.16
Shares Outstanding (M)843.77843.77843.77
Fair Value$1.74$1.83$1.92
Upside / Downside-68.53%-66.86%-65.13%

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