Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Changsha Tongcheng Holdings Co.Ltd (000419.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.23 - $1.68$1.46
Multi-Stage$2.24 - $2.47$2.35
Blended Fair Value$1.90
Current Price$5.76
Upside-66.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.59%2.91%0.130.150.160.150.020.160.020.120.020.10
YoY Growth---11.15%-6.25%6.67%544.14%-85.45%940.45%-87.19%500.02%-80.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.32%3.13%2.69%2.86%0.50%3.89%0.29%2.14%0.25%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)128.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.7016.069.64
Cash Retained (M)123.86123.86123.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.70-16.06-9.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)98.16107.80114.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)543.00543.00543.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate-5.59%-4.59%-3.59%
Fair Value$1.23$1.46$1.68
Upside / Downside-78.71%-74.73%-70.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)128.49122.59116.97111.60106.47101.59104.63
Payout Ratio3.60%20.88%38.16%55.44%72.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.6325.6044.6361.8777.4391.4396.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate-5.59%-4.59%-3.59%
Year 1 PV (M)23.2423.4923.73
Year 2 PV (M)36.8037.5838.37
Year 3 PV (M)46.3147.8049.32
Year 4 PV (M)52.6254.8957.22
Year 5 PV (M)56.4259.4762.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)998.251,052.251,108.57
Equity Value (M)1,213.641,275.471,339.86
Shares Outstanding (M)543.00543.00543.00
Fair Value$2.24$2.35$2.47
Upside / Downside-61.20%-59.22%-57.16%

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