Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co., Ltd. (000096.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.20 - $4.69$3.13
Multi-Stage$1.62 - $1.76$1.69
Blended Fair Value$2.41
Current Price$11.37
Upside-78.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.30%14.30%0.060.030.710.020.010.010.070.050.020.03
YoY Growth--77.95%-95.52%3,400.00%124.05%0.10%-86.14%44.27%122.94%-36.55%114.94%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.29%8.57%0.24%0.10%0.08%0.58%0.37%0.12%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.147.594.55
Cash Retained (M)46.7746.7746.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.14-7.59-4.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.6239.1842.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)520.28520.28520.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.20$3.13$4.69
Upside / Downside-80.63%-72.45%-58.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60.7264.6668.8773.3478.1183.1985.68
Payout Ratio22.97%36.38%49.78%63.19%76.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.9523.5234.2846.3459.8374.8779.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)21.1921.3921.59
Year 2 PV (M)27.8228.3528.88
Year 3 PV (M)33.8734.8535.84
Year 4 PV (M)39.3940.9142.46
Year 5 PV (M)44.4046.5548.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)674.20706.76740.57
Equity Value (M)840.87878.80918.12
Shares Outstanding (M)520.28520.28520.28
Fair Value$1.62$1.69$1.76
Upside / Downside-85.79%-85.14%-84.48%

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