Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

China Union Holdings Ltd. (000036.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.03 - $0.04$0.04
Multi-Stage$0.05 - $0.06$0.05
Blended Fair Value$0.05
Current Price$4.35
Upside-98.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-42.95%-2.33%0.030.060.120.320.510.560.480.280.120.15
YoY Growth---43.11%-50.67%-62.32%-37.38%-8.72%16.29%75.69%137.16%-23.09%250.69%
Dividend Yield--0.89%2.05%3.17%7.59%12.53%16.65%8.23%4.23%1.89%2.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.754.842.91
Cash Retained (M)25.4925.4925.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.75-4.84-2.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.7420.6522.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,411.441,411.441,411.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate-35.08%-34.08%-33.08%
Fair Value$0.03$0.04$0.04
Upside / Downside-99.26%-99.16%-99.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38.7425.5416.8311.107.324.824.97
Payout Ratio34.20%45.36%56.52%67.68%78.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.2511.589.527.515.774.344.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate-35.08%-34.08%-33.08%
Year 1 PV (M)10.4210.5810.75
Year 2 PV (M)7.707.948.19
Year 3 PV (M)5.475.735.99
Year 4 PV (M)3.784.024.27
Year 5 PV (M)2.562.762.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)42.0445.3848.93
Equity Value (M)71.9876.4281.10
Shares Outstanding (M)1,411.441,411.441,411.44
Fair Value$0.05$0.05$0.06
Upside / Downside-98.83%-98.76%-98.68%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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