Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen China Bicycle Company (Holdings) Limited (000017.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.39 - $0.56$0.47
Multi-Stage$0.57 - $0.63$0.60
Blended Fair Value$0.54
Current Price$6.60
Upside-91.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.075.053.03
Cash Retained (M)40.1640.1640.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.07-5.05-3.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.0935.1237.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)687.90687.90687.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.39$0.47$0.56
Upside / Downside-94.08%-92.86%-91.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.3639.9639.5639.1638.7738.3839.53
Payout Ratio0.49%18.39%36.29%54.19%72.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.207.3514.3621.2227.9534.5436.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6.636.696.76
Year 2 PV (M)11.6711.9112.15
Year 3 PV (M)15.5616.0416.53
Year 4 PV (M)18.4819.2520.04
Year 5 PV (M)20.5921.6722.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)321.67338.42355.86
Equity Value (M)394.61413.98434.13
Shares Outstanding (M)687.90687.90687.90
Fair Value$0.57$0.60$0.63
Upside / Downside-91.31%-90.88%-90.44%

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