Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xpediator Plc (XPD.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$242.99 - $286.28$268.29
Multi-Stage$70.38 - $77.14$73.70
Blended Fair Value$170.99
Current Price$0.44
Upside38,984.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016
DPS19.45%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---61.27%245.44%-58.21%15.04%278.00%-89.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.20%0.42%0.17%0.40%0.28%0.08%1.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,625.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)558.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,066.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)325.13203.20121.92
Cash Retained (M)1,066.731,066.731,066.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-325.13-203.20-121.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)741.60863.52944.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,129.291,129.291,129.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.760.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.760.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.261.33
WACC / Discount Rate5.13%5.13%5.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$242.99$268.29$286.28
Upside / Downside55,440.65%61,223.39%65,336.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,625.631,731.291,843.831,963.682,091.322,227.252,294.07
Payout Ratio34.38%45.50%56.63%67.75%78.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)558.90787.821,044.131,330.441,649.552,004.532,122.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.13%5.13%5.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)742.32749.36756.39
Year 2 PV (M)927.02944.67962.50
Year 3 PV (M)1,112.991,144.941,177.50
Year 4 PV (M)1,300.261,350.261,401.69
Year 5 PV (M)1,488.821,560.731,635.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)73,908.5277,478.3381,184.77
Equity Value (M)79,479.9383,228.3087,118.24
Shares Outstanding (M)1,129.291,129.291,129.29
Fair Value$70.38$73.70$77.14
Upside / Downside15,986.98%16,745.66%17,533.00%

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